苏格兰独立的现实检验

在英国脱欧进程完成前，苏格兰不太可能进行第二次脱英入欧的独立公投。当然，苏格兰单方面宣布独立的可能性也不能排除，但这会是比英国脱欧更具革命性的行为。

原文标题：Reality check on Scottish independence

中文摘要：澳大利亚独立研究中心专家Simon Cowan在《苏格兰独立的现实检验》一文中表示，苏格兰民族党对英国脱欧的结果表示不满。然而，在英国脱欧进程完成前，苏格兰不太可能进行第二次脱英入欧的独立公投。首先，无论苏格兰议会对开展第二次独立公投的投票结果如何，英国议会都必将通过法律来限制这一公投。这样的公投没有前途，议会中保守党占多数席位，且英国首相梅也反对苏格兰在英国脱欧进程结束前再次举行公投。其次，由于石油收入下降，苏格兰预算出现了大量赤字。欧盟是否会接受一个未经财政整顿的独立的苏格兰仍是问题。当然，苏格兰单方面宣布独立的可能性也不能排除，但这会是比英国脱欧更具革命性的行为。（编译：罗婧婧）

原文：

The Scottish Nationalist Party, holder of 54 of 59 Scottish seats in the UK House of Commons and 63 seats in the Scottish Parliament, is aggrieved at the Brexit result.

More specifically, they believe that the vote of the Scottish people was strongly in favour of remaining in the European Union and that therefore the democratic will of the Scots was being frustrated by a ‘foreign’ body in Westminster.

Ironically, the British know this exact feeling — the perception that the European parliament had sovereignty over the wishes of UK citizens was one of the key triggers for Brexit in the first place.

However none of this shared sentiment is likely to result in a second vote on Scottish independence before Brexit is complete.

First, whatever the outcome of a vote in the Scottish parliament on a second referendum, the UK parliament must also pass a law to hold the referendum (as they did for the 2014 referendum where Scotland voted to remain in the UK).

There is little prospect of such a vote passing. The Tories have an absolute majority of seats and Prime Minister May is opposed to holding any referendum before Brexit. Indeed, given the instability of Brexit combined with the uncertainty of such a referendum, it would be hard to see any future UK Prime Minister agreeing to the request.

Second, the Scottish budget is massively in deficit as a result of a fall in oil revenues. It is not clear that the EU would accept an independent Scotland as a member without substantial fiscal consolidation, something that would be very difficult at the best of times let alone when Scotland was seeking to leave the UK and the UK was seeking to leave Brexit.

This does not rule out the possibility of Scotland going it alone and simply declaring itself an independent country. However that would be an even more revolutionary step than Brexit.